Roko

Roko's Comments

What is your internet search methodology ?

It's probably only worth using ecosia if you think your time is virtually worthless. Tree planting is mostly a useless activity in the grand scheme of things, though one gets into a somewhat complicated calculation to show this.

Google claims there are 3*10^12 trees in the world, ecosia claims to have planted about 10^8. Trees are in an equilibrium with a bunch of stuff like atmospheric CO2 as well. Your personal contribution to the number of trees via ecosia is likely ~ a few trees (not clear whether they reach maturity though).

Do anything else useful with your time before this.

The EMH Aten't Dead

There is a simple explanation to this: It turns out that being a good rationalist with access to an option trading account is actually an edge.

I also realized that the market was wrong and told friends to pull out of equities in mid-February. They didn't listen.

Covid-19 Points of Leverage, Travel Bans and Eradication

alarmist. Good Judgement's Dashboard has less than a 20% chance of over 350k deaths -

It's changed substantially since you wrote this BTW. It's now 54%

Far-Ultraviolet Light in Public Spaces to Fight Pandemic is a Good Idea but Premature

There are definitely some materials that will resist it. There would be a one-off cost to replace materials, then mostly not much change.

Alarm bell for the next pandemic, V.2

It would be very valuable to take a particular "Alarm" and see how many true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives it would have produced over the past 20 years.

Far-Ultraviolet Light in Public Spaces to Fight Pandemic is a Good Idea but Premature
sunburns

I don't think this would be a problem with sunburn unless your skin started peeling.

I generally only put a dressing on damaged skin if it's actually bleeding.

One should probably put a dressing on that in public places for general hygiene reasons anyway - both for your benefit and for the benefit of other people!

The total time x surface area of these events is probably not very large anyway, and in addition your cells are less affected due to their size, might be hidden under clothes, in shadow, etc etc etc. One would have to run the numbers on this and compare it to existing skin cancers from UVB - it could very plausibly be 3 orders of magnitude less.

abrasion from overuse

What's the time x surface area for people rubbing their own skin off? Probably not much!

Discontinuous progress in history: an update

You should definitely try harder to connect with academic historians. They justify their existence by telling us they can help us learn from the past - this is a golden opportunity for it!

Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics

No, this Far-UVC stuff is very nasty. It is only ok for us on the outside because our skin stops it.

Exposing your blood to large amounts of Far-UVC is almost certainly going to lead to cancer IMO.

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