Elizabeth

Elizabeth's Comments

Why COVID-19 prevention at the margin might be bad for most LWers

It's pretty wide ranging and I don't have time to find all of it, but off the top of my head

  • Jim's Question on long term effects
  • The Diamond Princess Data (both initial death rates and the subsequent finding that half the asymptomatic cases had severe chest x-ray abnormalities)
  • A baseline expectation that it would be weird for something to be 10x worse in one population and not at all worse in another
Why COVID-19 prevention at the margin might be bad for most LWers
COVID-19 isn't that bad for the vast majority of young and otherwise healthy people (no worse than a bad flu).

I disagree with this and disagree that it is the consensus. The risk of serious sequelae is uncertain but potentially quite high- certainly much worse than the flu.

[Link] COVID-19 causing deadly blood clots in younger people

All else being equal you don't want to use antipyretics because fever is beneficial (to a point). Aspirin might reduce your chance of stroke but increase the strength of the infection.

What Happens During a Recession

I specifically looked into the smaller recessions and not the Great Depression because it's just too weird. I think you might be right that this one will approach it, but before I look into the Great Depression I want to check out the 1970s oil shocks, which share with the present the common feature that they were caused by an actual thing changing, rather than financial tools misfiring. The Great Depression is also just so well known relative to the smaller recessions (although the Great Recession also has a lot of material on it).

LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda

Hey everyone who is following this closely- I've been sprinting madly for the last six weeks and hit my limit. You can expect a retrospective post and perhaps a phase 2 agenda in the next few weeks, but for now I am resting.

Transportation as a Constraint

http://orbis.stanford.edu/ is an amazing customizable map showing transportation costs across the empire and for routes you choose in particular. You can set travel mechanisms, season, transfer costs, etc.

What will happen to supply chains in the era of COVID-19?

Article claims beer and soda are endangered by the reduction in driving. CO2 comes mostly from ethanol production, which is on the decline.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/beer-may-lose-its-fizz-as-co2-supplies-go-flat-during-pandemic.amp

Where should LessWrong go on COVID?

Double checking that you've seen this comment on the supply chain thread (which deals with produce)?

Simulacra and Subjectivity

I've talked about simulacra levels with Ben a ton and this comment is the single most helpful thing in understanding them or explaining to others.

[U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government

Not a lawyer, repeating the words of someone else who's not a lawyer.

I talked to my bank (a 3 state credit union) today, specifically asking whether I counted as my own employee. The representative implied the SBA itself didn't know, and if they did they hadn't shared the information yet. She also very strongly implied that as long as I filled out the forms in good faith and my supporting documents were accurate, I would not be punished for fraud.

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