Overly Convenient Excuses

Aug 24, 2017

by Eliezer Yudkowsky

This sequence focuses on questions that are as probabilistically clear-cut as questions get. The Bayes-optimal answer is often infeasible to compute, but errors like confirmation bias can take root even in cases where the available evidence is overwhelming and we have plenty of time to think things over.

The Proper Use of Humility

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46

The Third Alternative

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83

Lotteries: A Waste of Hope

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74

New Improved Lottery

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37

But There's Still A Chance, Right?

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52

The Fallacy of Gray

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78

Absolute Authority

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73

How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3

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396

Infinite Certainty

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121

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

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133

Your Rationality is My Business

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26